Meteorology

Tropical Storm Matthew

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Tropical Storm Matthew formed today. It is forecast to become a hurricane this Friday.

matthew1

What is unusual is that the forecast track has the system making a hard right turn to the north sometime this weekend. Most of the models are in agreement to that forecast.

matthew2

However, the two main models, GFS and ECMWF, disagree on where it will track a week from now. An earlier run of the GFS had it going up Chesapeake Bay next Thursday. The ECMWF has it moving slower with a possible landfall in southern Florida, so this should be watched carefully in the coming days.

BloomSky Weather Station

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Over the weekend, I installed a BloomSky weather station at my home in Stormstown. The installation was simple. The only tool required was a Phillips screwdriver.

First, the mount was simply clamped to the backyard fence. Then a mounting plate for the solar panel was screwed onto the mount. The solar panel simply clipped to the plate. Before mounting the sensors, it had to be configured for the WiFi by using the iOS app. This was an easy process after plugging it in using the supplied AC adapter.

bloomsky

Lastly, the weather station itself only had to be dropped in place into the mount, and then plug in the solar panel. The only issue was the the air pressure didn’t report at first. This was resolved by unplugging the solar array and cycling the power from the internal battery. Then plug the solar array back in.

Data and camera imagery are located here:

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KPAPORTM15#history

 

 

Cloud Seeding Using Drones

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While reading the latest issue of Weatherwise, I learned that The Desert Research Institute of Nevada has been conducting experiments using a drone for cloud seeding.

https://www.engadget.com/2016/05/04/cloud-seeding-drone-makes-first-flight-over-nevada/

This is surprising considering that many cloud seeding experimental programs were suspended following The Rapid City Flood in June 1972. Cloud seeding was being conducted nearby at the time.

http://www.weathermodification.org/publications/index.php/JWM/article/viewFile/166/212

Weather modification is a double edge sword and results have been dubious at best. In 1972, there were lawsuits against those that were conducting cloud seeding near Rapid City, even though there was little evidence that cloud seeding had augmented the rainfall that caused the flooding.

Penn State had also been conducting similar experiments in the seventies with their own aircraft. That program was also suspended. The plane that was being used for weather modification was refitted for air pollution studies.

Gaston and Invest 99L

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Tropical Storm Gaston developed today. However, unless you’re shipping something across the Atlantic, that’s all you need to know. It is forecast to recurve and remain at sea.

two_atl_2d0

The focus is still on Invest 99L. Now the ECMWF model is bullish on possible US landfall in The Gulf of Mexico around the Florida panhandle next Tuesday. The GFS model, not so much. Still too far out for any reasonable certainty.

storm_99

Invest 90 and 99

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As stated in a previous post, the forecasts can significantly change for systems that are forecast many days in advance. The 06 UTC GFS model run is not so bullish on Invest 99. The GFS now shows the storm making a hard right out to sea as it moves near The Bahamas.

storm_99

Focus is also on Invest 90 which is ow developing off the west coast of Africa. The models, as of this writing, indicate that it will not be a threat to the US.

storm_90

Proto Gaston

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The following image looks innocuous, but it has the potential to develop into a major Atlantic tropical system within the next week or so.

99L

The models, as of this afternoon, have the storm tracking near Florida and/or into The Gulf of Mexico. However, this is still many days away and the forecast can change.

storm_99

The GFS model is especially bullish, as seen in the video below.

Climate Talking Points

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  1. There is no 97% consensus of scientists. In a 2013 survey of the professional members of the American Meteorological Society, only 52% believed that global warming was primarily man-made – much less dangerous. No group in the survey came anywhere close to reaching 97%.
  2. Heatwaves are not getting worse. According to the EPA, the worst heatwaves in the US (by far) occurred during the 1930’s – when the Midwest commonly saw temperatures over 110 degrees, and as high as 120 degrees.
  3. Droughts are not getting worse. According to NOAA, the US has been getting steadily wetter over the past century.
  4. Scientists say that California has had much more severe droughts in the past, lasting as long as 200 years. The past 100 years was the wettest century on record in California.
  5. Hurricanes are not getting worse. The US is experiencing a record quiet period for hurricanes.
  6. According to the Danish Meteorological Institute, the Arctic Ocean is full of thick ice. There is more ice on the Russian side than there has been in years, and a group of global warming sailors are currently blocked by impenetrable ice in the Northeast Passage.
  7. Polar Bear populations are not decreasing. In fact, there are more Polar Bears now than when Al Gore was born.
  8. Sea level has been rising for 20,000 years, since the end of the last ice age. Most of that time much faster than now. It has nothing to do with humans.
  9. According to NOAA, sea level is only rising 1.7 to 1.8 mm/year. At that rate, it will take thousands of years for Manhattan to drown.
  10. According to NOAA, sea level at Manhattan has been rising at about the same rate (2.8 mm/year) since the 1850’s. There is no indication that humans are affecting the rate of sea level rise.
  11. Glaciers have been melting for a very long time. In 1879, John Muir (founder of the Sierra Club) found that Alaska’s largest glacier had retreated 48 miles since 1794. Twenty thousand years ago, Chicago was buried under a mile of glacial ice.
  12. Forest fires are not getting worse over the long term. According to USDA, the US had five times as much burn acreage in the 1930’s as we do now.
  13. Climate models have epically failed, and greatly over-predict warming.
  14. Our most accurate systems for measuring global temperature, satellites, show that this year (2022) is no warmer than 1998.
These points are unassailable, and backed by government data. So which side is fear mongering?

Climate Debate Rules

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Rule 1 – Do not make the thoroughly discredited claim that 97% of scientists agree that humans are warming the globe significantly.

Rule 2 – Do not employ the use of an ad hominem, dismiss an argument solely based on its source or funding, or employ any other logical fallacies.

Rule 3 – Stay on topic. No strawman arguments.

Rule 4 – Answer questions.

Rule 5 – When you are wrong, admit it and apologize.

Rule 6 – There is no Rule 6