The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season has officially ended. Although all of the official names were used, four of those storms were short-lived or extratropical, and, in my humble opinion, should not have been named (Ana, Odette, Teresa, Wanda). There were officially 21 named storms, but there were really just 17. There were 7 hurricanes of which 4 were major. One of those, Ida, made landfall in the U.S. None of the storms exceeded Category 4. Ida and Sam were the strongest this year at Category 4. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) for the season was lower than 2020.
Harvey and Irma Are Not A Sign of Climate Change
Sorry climate alarmists, but you can not blame this year’s major hurricanes on climate change, global warming or whatever you want to call it.
Posting on the Watts Up With That blog.
Prior to this season, there haven’t been any major hurricane landfalls in The United States since Wilma in 2005. This season is simply an anomaly. In fact, the frequency of major hurricanes has been decreasing.
Tropical Storm Matthew
Tropical Storm Matthew formed today. It is forecast to become a hurricane this Friday.
What is unusual is that the forecast track has the system making a hard right turn to the north sometime this weekend. Most of the models are in agreement to that forecast.
However, the two main models, GFS and ECMWF, disagree on where it will track a week from now. An earlier run of the GFS had it going up Chesapeake Bay next Thursday. The ECMWF has it moving slower with a possible landfall in southern Florida, so this should be watched carefully in the coming days.
Gaston and Invest 99L
Tropical Storm Gaston developed today. However, unless you’re shipping something across the Atlantic, that’s all you need to know. It is forecast to recurve and remain at sea.
The focus is still on Invest 99L. Now the ECMWF model is bullish on possible US landfall in The Gulf of Mexico around the Florida panhandle next Tuesday. The GFS model, not so much. Still too far out for any reasonable certainty.
Invest 90 and 99
As stated in a previous post, the forecasts can significantly change for systems that are forecast many days in advance. The 06 UTC GFS model run is not so bullish on Invest 99. The GFS now shows the storm making a hard right out to sea as it moves near The Bahamas.
Focus is also on Invest 90 which is ow developing off the west coast of Africa. The models, as of this writing, indicate that it will not be a threat to the US.
The Tropics Awakens
The latest 12 UTC GFS model run is featuring two systems that may affect US interests by next week. What does persist is the system that is tracking into The Gulf of Mexico. The other system, more intense as depicted by the model, recurves before impacting the east coast. Both systems should be watched closely in the coming days.
The following image looks innocuous, but it has the potential to develop into a major Atlantic tropical system within the next week or so.
The models, as of this afternoon, have the storm tracking near Florida and/or into The Gulf of Mexico. However, this is still many days away and the forecast can change.
The GFS model is especially bullish, as seen in the video below.