Tropical Storms

2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season has officially ended. Although all of the official names were used, four of those storms were short-lived or extratropical, and, in my humble opinion, should not have been named (Ana, Odette, Teresa, Wanda). There were officially 21 named storms, but there were really just 17. There were 7 hurricanes of which 4 were major. One of those, Ida, made landfall in the U.S. None of the storms exceeded Category 4. Ida and Sam were the strongest this year at Category 4. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) for the season was lower than 2020.

Harvey and Irma Are Not A Sign of Climate Change

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at201711_sat Sorry climate alarmists, but you can not blame this year’s major hurricanes on climate change, global warming or whatever you want to call it.

Posting on the Watts Up With That blog.

Prior to this season, there haven’t been any major hurricane landfalls in The United States since Wilma in 2005. This season is simply an anomaly. In fact, the frequency of major hurricanes has been decreasing.

 

 

Tropical Storm Matthew

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Tropical Storm Matthew formed today. It is forecast to become a hurricane this Friday.

matthew1

What is unusual is that the forecast track has the system making a hard right turn to the north sometime this weekend. Most of the models are in agreement to that forecast.

matthew2

However, the two main models, GFS and ECMWF, disagree on where it will track a week from now. An earlier run of the GFS had it going up Chesapeake Bay next Thursday. The ECMWF has it moving slower with a possible landfall in southern Florida, so this should be watched carefully in the coming days.

Gaston and Invest 99L

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Tropical Storm Gaston developed today. However, unless you’re shipping something across the Atlantic, that’s all you need to know. It is forecast to recurve and remain at sea.

two_atl_2d0

The focus is still on Invest 99L. Now the ECMWF model is bullish on possible US landfall in The Gulf of Mexico around the Florida panhandle next Tuesday. The GFS model, not so much. Still too far out for any reasonable certainty.

storm_99

Invest 90 and 99

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As stated in a previous post, the forecasts can significantly change for systems that are forecast many days in advance. The 06 UTC GFS model run is not so bullish on Invest 99. The GFS now shows the storm making a hard right out to sea as it moves near The Bahamas.

storm_99

Focus is also on Invest 90 which is ow developing off the west coast of Africa. The models, as of this writing, indicate that it will not be a threat to the US.

storm_90

Proto Gaston

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The following image looks innocuous, but it has the potential to develop into a major Atlantic tropical system within the next week or so.

99L

The models, as of this afternoon, have the storm tracking near Florida and/or into The Gulf of Mexico. However, this is still many days away and the forecast can change.

storm_99

The GFS model is especially bullish, as seen in the video below.